Football Talks (Eagles-Commanders Week 16 Preview)
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Football Talks: Week 16 Preview – Eagles vs. Commanders
Washington Commanders: Last Week Recap
First, we're going to talk about the Commanders and what they were able to do last week. They were able to beat the Giants in a very competitive matchup, 29-21, but that doesn't really mean anything. They're 4 wins and 10 losses, and they beat a 2-win Giants team, so it doesn't really tell you much, but they were able to beat them 29-21.
The Commanders scored first, the first time in this season they did to do so. Washington swept the Giants in the 2025 season, beating them twice. Jalen Lane, their punt returner, returned one for 63 yards and a touchdown. That's his second of the year.
Here's an interesting point. The Commanders fumbled four times, so I'm expecting a bunch of fumbles. Jakorian Kroskey Merrit rushed for 96 yards and a touchdown. Marcus Mariota threw a 51-yard touchdown to Terry McLaurin, his longest since 2022. So yeah, they had a game where they were able to operate at a good level, obviously, versus the Giants team, but they're still able to operate at a good level.
When we look at some of the stats, Marcus Mariota, 10 of 19, 211 yards and a touchdown. And despite Jayden Daniels, he's gone for the year, so we have Marcus Mariota. This is the second week in a row the Eagles are facing a backup quarterback, and Marcus Mariota is different. He's not Kenny Pickett. He's on a different level. He's playing at a very good level. He's stabilizing the offense. Now, he's not playing at a great level or anything like that, or anything to challenge Jayden Daniels job security. I'm not saying that, but he has been playing at a pretty good level. Over 200 yards, touchdown. He's been able to fumble it, so take that what you want, but he's giving stability, but not necessarily elite production.
Philadelphia Eagles: Season Overview
When you look at the Eagles, I'm not going to talk about their stats as much. You can go back on our recap about the Raiders-Eagles. You found out all the stats, all the takes, everything you need to know. That was in a post a couple days ago, but the Eagles coming off, obviously, just to recap, a 31-0 win, and they were able to show a lot of things, able to exercise a lot of the talent that they have on this offense. Their defense has been doing what they've been doing all year, but just really capitalized and had a high level of execution on defense.
When you look at the Eagles, though, as far as the whole season, they've had a great year on defense. The offense has been up and down however.
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Devontae Smith – 889 receiving yards on 66 catches with three touchdowns. He's been the most productive pass catcher. He's really taken a step this year, and he leads the Eagles in receiving.
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AJ Brown – 840 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. He's still doing really good. He's had three out of the past four games with over 100 receiving yards.
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Dallas Goedert – over 550 receiving yards and nine receiving touchdowns. That's fourth among pass catchers. He's been a huge factor as far as red zone ability. He's been a huge factor in just being able to move the chains of the offense. He's been a great tight end this year. He's really stepped up in a lot of ways.
Eagles Secondary vs. Commanders Offense
The Eagles secondary, and the whole defense, though, when you look at them, this is really what defines that team. When you look at the matchup between the Commanders and Eagles, this matchup is less about Washington's quarterback and their offense, but more who they're throwing against. You look at the Eagles secondary, and this is a great secondary.
Now, you're looking at Quinyon Mitchell, who's a top three cornerback. Quinyon Mithcell isn't just good, he changes the way that people play call. Think about this, they're going to have Terry McLaurin. Terry McLaurin is pretty good, maybe some could argue he's a top 10 wide receiver. He's a really good wide receiver, but Quinyon Mitchell will just erase him, and that's something I'm fully confident that we're not going to have to worry about him. Whoever he covers, he's been doing awesome. Some people could say he's even a top three cornerback. PFF grades him as a top five cornerback, but he's just playing at a different level, an elite level, he can erase Terry McLaurin.
And obviously, you have to think about their second wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, who's been more productive. He's over 600 receiving yards, that's their top wide receiver, but he's going to be erased because he's a slot guy. That's all he does is slot. And Cooper DeJean, it's really a style trap. Cooper DeJean versus Deebo Samuel is super unbalanced. Cooper DeJean is going to be able to win that matchup.
And then you think about that, they don't have a really good wide receiver three. Zach Ertz, he's hurt, and you've got a backup quarterback, and you've got mid running backs at best. This team is really underwhelmed as far as from the Eagles defense. When you look at how good they are versus the Commanders' offense, this is going to be a big advantage.
And then I think when you look at the rest of this game, they just don't have many weapons to go to, and that's probably why he's done pretty good considering the weapons he's had. And really, the offensive line is Washington's only real hope. If Washington wants to keep this close in the slightest, it has to start up front. It has to start with moving the ball on offense, and I think stopping the Eagles defense. I think that's more of a bigger of a factor.
When you look at their O-line, their O-line is pretty good. Probably the best position group they have, but they're very run heavy. They have a top 10 run group, which is interesting. Jakorian Kroskey Merrit had 96 yards and a score, so they're very run heavy, bottom of the league as far as passing. But yeah, so they're just really a struggling team right now.
Eagles: Stress Test & Playoff Indicator
This game is a stress test for Eagles maturity, not necessarily their ability. We know they have the talent and stuff like that, but this game is really interesting for me, at least, to watch, and hopefully for you to watch.
This game is interesting in a couple of ways. Number one, this is interesting just to see how Kevin Patullo can continue to build upon that wonderful 31-point drubbing of the Raiders. How can he continue to build? How can he look good? How can his play calling keep evolving, be able to do some things? He brought in AJ Brown in the slot. He brought in play under center. He brought so many different things within the offense that you can go back and look and see that he did differently. Can he continue building that, or is he going to stop playing aggressive? Is he going to take his foot off the pedal? And that's going to be something interesting for me.
I think really another thing, and this is something big for me, this is a key playoff indicator. They're going to get a division rival, and while it's not as important, there's still a 4-10 Commander team that's still competing, and it's really interesting how far can you go in the playoffs. Do they start fast? Is the Eagles going to start faster on offense? Are they going to avoid early penalties? Are they going to be disciplined? Do they put away the game in the third quarter like they did last week?
This is interesting because it's more of an indicator for the Eagles, just more of like, just to see what temperature they're at right now as far as playoff ready.
Commanders Roster Issues
And I think the problem when you look at the Commanders, they built a roster for a quarterback who isn't playing. When you look at it, they got an aging roster because they wanted to win now for this one season, trying to build it around Jayden Daniels. That's just not how you do it, and the problem is now you have a terrible team that's really going down the drain. They have an aging roster, the oldest roster in the league, and they've got just a young quarterback who they tried to build around. In two or three years, they're going to be rebuilding, and you're going to be wasting the top two years of his prime. I think this is a terrible situation when you look at it.
Eagles Defense & Optionality
I think something else to consider: the Eagles' defense is closer to championship form than the offense, but I feel like that's fine to a degree. Obviously, you want your offense to be better, and they did look better in last game, but the Eagles' defense is playing at an exceptional level, something we've never seen. And put it this way, would you rather trust a hot offense or a suffocating defense in January? Because for me, when you look at it, I think the Cowboys—they have a great offense, maybe the best offense in the league, but they have a terrible defense, and they lose games. And while it may look ugly, while it may not be entertaining for us, it is something just to note: we do have a really good defense that can lead us to win some games.
The Eagles' biggest playoff advantage isn't necessarily one player, it's optionality. They have so many ways they can win. When you look at other playoff teams, they've got to rely on a quarterback that's going to play great, the wide receivers that can catch the ball, a defense that's going to hold them points. We have a lot of optionality, and when we exercise those different options, whether it be we beat you through the run game, we beat you through the passing game, we beat you through our O-line in the trenches, we beat you through physicality, through the defense, there are so many ways we can beat you. We're such a talented team to where it's not about talent, it's more optionality.
The problem is, are we going to exercise those talents and those options in the right way to be able to win playoff games? Can we put it together, really, when you look at it?
Prediction & Hot Takes
This game is going to be really interesting. I'm really excited. If I was to give a prediction, I'll give my prediction and my hot take. My prediction is I'm saying 27-6. I think it's going to be a game where it's more slow-paced. They're not trying to prove anything. They already proved that last week. Now, obviously, they are proving something, but it's going to be a more light game, a more chill game, I feel like. It's going to be 27-6. I feel like the defense goes out there, plays awesome. I think 27 points is manageable, and I think they put up another good win, and then they go against the Bills. Obviously, they're still trying to get a two-seed. One-seed is pretty much not happening, but it's slightly possible. Right now, a three-seed or maybe two-seed, if they can really do good, and some other teams can drop some wins.
That's for me. It's just interesting. I think my hot take, and here's my hot take: The Commanders fumble three times or more. That's my hot take. You look at their fumbles. They've got backup quarterbacks, no reliable options. The Eagles defense loves turnovers, and we really thrive upon turnovers. I think we get at least three turnovers, or three fumbles, interceptions, whatever you want to say, at least three turnovers plus. I think we win the turnover margin by a huge margin, and I think that'd be my hot take.
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